Excerpts from recent opinion pieces from New York Times on the climate convert:
CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.
Muller’s team last fall submitted four papers summarizing its review of a vast array of temperature records spanning two centuries to the journal JGR Atmospheres and posted them and supporting data and other material at the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, or BEST, Web site. (The papers have not been published yet and one of my first questions for Muller and his team now is have they been accepted?)
The team’s new strong conclusion about human-generated greenhouse gases driving recent warming is one of several findings in a fifth paper that Muller says is being submitted to the journal and posted on his Web site, as well [this afternoon].Muller, who has combined P.T. Barnum showmanship and science throughout his three-year project, chose to break the news in an Op-Ed article in The Times (with various leaks and rumors percolating on the Web). There are perils in having publicity precede peer review.
Last weekend saw a remarkable pulse of pre-publication publicity for fresh climate studies lobbed into the global warming wars. (As Emerson, Lake and Palmer sang in 1974, “Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends…“)
First came the Web posting of new analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project pointing to the dominant role of humans in driving recent climate change. Then — almost simultaneously — a heavily drum-rolled release of a new paper by a team led by WattsUpWithThat blogger Anthony Watts claiming to have identified big errors in how United States temperature patterns have been calculated.